The old Greek word “epidemos” means “upon people” while pandemic refers to events affecting all nations in the world. Historically such events have always shifted geopolitical layers.But there have always been nations that mange to take advantage of the circumstances, passing through the trials and tribulations and emerging stronger.

During the so-called Justinian plague in the middle of the 6th century, the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium) started to become depopulated. The ancient historian Procopius of Caesarea describes what he saw: "... In 535-536 a most dread portent took place: for a whole year the sun was dim like a moon, as if it had lost its power and ceased to be pure and brightly shining as before. From the time this happened, men were free neither from war, nor pestilence, nor any other thing leading to death.”

Subsequent cooling led to a sharp decline in agriculture and a vast famine. The invasions of the Huns and Slavs south of the Danube resumed. In China 80% of the population died of starvation.

During the rule of the next emperor, Justinian II a second dimming of the sun occurred, which some attributed to erupting volcanoes. Aurora Borealis was being observed throughout the year. The Justinian plague continued in 18 waves to the year 750. Slavic tribes and Bulgarians benefit from the commotion and they permanently settled in the Balkans. Expectations for the end of the world at that time are depicted in fragments of ceramic icons in Vinica (today a town in North Macedonia – ed.), where Bulgarians and Slavs are depicted as one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. The empire was so changed that in order to survive, it forced the introduction of some of the legislation practices of its new Slavic population into its legal and economic order.

After 1347, the plague in Europe was cited as one of the reasons for the success of the Ottoman sultans. In the various regions of the continent, the Black Death was affecting up to half of the population. The same plague had previously passed from China to Europe, not without the help of the Mongol conquerors. But we should not forget that every epidemic is an enemy for both defenders and conquerors. The reasons for the success of the Ottomans as conquerors are different. During the reign of Justinian, the defending Byzantine Empire sought and succeeded in absorbing some of the invaders. In the 14th century, however, the picture was different. Byzantium went bankrupt and peoples started fighting to inherit its former glory. Everyone was dreaming of building their own multinational empires. The most successful in this endeavor were the Ottomans. Without distinction of faith and nationality, they most skillfully copied and recreated the successful policies of the Byzantine model for mobilizing people and resources during their expansion.

Historians claim that reactions to the plague of the 14th century were different in Western and Eastern Europe. Not without the help of riots, the surviving dependent peasants in the West were exempt from many duties. They started receiving payment for their work because of the lack of labor force. In the East, however, the obligations of the dependent population were further strengthened.

Historical analogies may be a risky attempt to predict the future, but there are some common consequences of pandemics seen throughout all ages. Money is always sharply depreciated, prices go up until a new equilibrium is found. The demographic decline and broken economy raise the cost of human labor.

English: Alexander Markov