Full implementation of the Minsk deal is the best chance of reaching a political resolution of the conflict in Donbas, said European Council President Donald Tusk adding that the EU continues to strictly monitor the implementation of the agreement signed in February. Donald Tusk made this statement at an EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev this week, the first since the beginning of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The meeting was attended also by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who stated that the free trade agreement with Ukraine must be postponed no longer and must come into effect on 1 January 2016. Kiev was promised a European future provided the country makes headway in implementing reforms. The situation in Ukraine was the subject of a round table organized by Radio Bulgaria.

“At this time Ukraine cherishes some unrealistic expectations,” said one of the participants, Dimitar Bechev, regional expert for Central and Eastern Europe at the leading consulting and information company Oxford Analytica. “The demands that will be made to Brussels will most probably include progress on issues like a visa-free regime or dispatching a peacekeeping mission to Donbas. The EU has neither the capacity nor the political will to do that. Nonetheless, the economic relations are at hand. I think that in the long-term the road towards the EU is there to be seen. The big question now facing Brussels is how to cash in Ukraine’s European interest and to demand reforms in key sectors, such as the corruption-ridden power generation. Bulgaria too has a place here. Unfortunately, the EU is unable to provide what Ukraine needs most – security. In this sense, the only response are sanctions, even though they are only effective in the long term. There is fighting in Mariupol in Southeastern Ukraine and in other parts of the dividing line. It is a bit difficult for the EU to apply this kind of impact tool on the Kremlin to demand some kind of concrete action in the short term. The problem is that if we regard the Ukraine conflict as an EU-Russia operation, these are players whose potential, whose capacity is different as are the different decision-making models. As to the sanctions - it would be interesting to see what will happen in summer when they will either have to be lifted or continued. The debate will be back in Brussels’ hands though there is a clear commitment to the Minsk agreement. Germany is a key country as it is somewhere between the two camps within the EU – those who are demanding a tough approach and those who want a return to the status quo, as was the case in 2008 after the conflict with Georgia. Right now Germany has taken a position that is a little tougher, as Chancellor Merkel who was staking on Putin feels betrayed. If the debate in Germany were to take a different direction or if there is a lull in the fighting, there may be changes with regard to the sanctions. For the time being I do not see a political will for radical changes in the policy of containment the EU has adopted. If there is a serious clash in Eastern Ukraine that could take things back to square one, including in the talks between the “Normandy four” and Russia.”

Another participant - Marin Lesenski, Director of the Open Society European Policies and Citizen Participation Program – says that Bulgaria’s official position on the Ukraine conflict is adequate even though governments change and with them – political views.

“To my mind the association agreement offered Ukraine was also proposed to quite a few neighbouring countries. This was the EU’s wish – to surround itself with a group of friendly and stable countries. This neighbourhood policy is in no way a threat to anyone and Russia should have seen the benefits of a stable and prosperous Ukraine. It is Bulgaria’s wish to see Serbia, Macedonia and the other Balkan countries become members of the EU because that would bring this country benefits. Several things have to happen in Ukraine and the first one of them is security. The test is Mariupol. If there is an offensive that means there will be a bigger war. This means that the entire Southern front to the North from Crimea to Odessa will be a zone of instability. The situation must be bridled, and then reforms must be set in motion to ensure financial stability and the supremacy of law. The rights of the minorities must be guaranteed so there would be no talk of a breach of the rights of the Russian-speaking community, of the Bulgarian or of any other minority.”

English version: Milena Daynova