The conclusive results of the runoff of presidential elections in Bulgaria have not officially been made public yet, but there is no doubt the landslide victor is Rumen Radev, nominated by an initiative committee and supported by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The election of the fifth head of state in Bulgaria’s most modern history set off unprecedented political developments in the country.

Prime Minister Boyko Borissov resigned, stating he would make no attempt to form a new cabinet under the present parliament. Borissov’s move may seem emotional but it makes perfect sense, because votes for the “red” general, Rumen Radev came from surprising quarters – the sympathizers of his coalition partner the Reformist Bloc, of the Patriotic Front which supported his cabinet and even his own party – GERB. After ten straight GERB election victories, the loss of the 2016 presidential election is particularly bitter.

This is the first time a socialist candidate has won elections in many, many years, though the powerful support he received from sympathizers of other political forces does not seem to have boosted the BSP’s confidence and it too says it wants early elections at which it could try and assert itself as the top political force in the country. This is no easy task, because as some analysts say even though it lost the presidential election, GERB is still the prime political force and that is a critical advantage in proportional representation elections such as elections for parliament.

A cabinet under the current parliament could be formed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) as the third political force, but that is practically impossible, as the movement does not have a sufficient resource to do so. GERB and the BSP are refusing to support it and there is nowhere else the DPS could turn to for support.

As things stand now, early elections seem an inevitability and this will, with a high measure of probability, be confirmed in the coming days after consultations between President Plevneliev and the major political forces. But there is one other factor that makes this situation so unorthodox – in the last three months of his term of office, the president cannot dissolve parliament yet the date for early parliamentary elections is set by the same act as the dissolution of parliament. The president will most probably have to consult the Constitutional Court on the matter. Some analysts say that Bulgaria will proceed to hold early elections with a caretaker cabinet appointed by the president, without parliament having been dissolved. Yet this could bring about a major change in the political system because before leaving parliament at the end of January, the MPs will make the results of the referendum law. By way of reminder, the referendum included three questions – on introducing a majority representation vote for MPs in two rounds, on making voting mandatory and on a drastic reduction of party subsidies. Some are calling the situation a political crisis, others just say it is unprecedented. Close to 30 years after the start of democratic change, the country is still in uncharted territory.

English version: Milena Daynova