After the resignation of the government, the Bulgarian president conducted political consultations with the parliamentary forces individually and then convened the Consultative Council on National Security, yet neither came up with any specific way out of the political crisis, merely outlining different hypotheses. A solution can only be found after going through the mandatory procedures, set down in the constitution in cases such as this. President Plevneliev is expected to set them in motion on Friday when he will offer an exploratory mandate for the formation of a new government to the hitherto ruling GERB party.

The statements GERB has been making as the consultations progressed leave no room for doubt that it will decline forming a new cabinet under the current parliament. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) has also said it will decline. If it does, the president will have to offer a mandate for the formation of a cabinet to a third parliamentary force of his own choosing. At yesterday’s Consultative Council on National Security, the Patriotic Front stated it intended to accept such a mandate, on condition it is given a sufficient amount of support by other political forces. GERB party leader and outgoing Prime Minister Boyko Borissov stated he was ready to offer such support in principle, yet many have their doubts. First, because such a government would mean the same shifting majority in parliament that Borissov gave up on, deciding to step down precisely because it had exhausted its potential. Second, because the Patriotic Front intends to invite as members of its possible future government, outgoing ministers from the Borissov cabinet which he says is unacceptable. GERB’s coalition partner, the Reformist Bloc says it too prefers a new cabinet under this parliament but has not yet decided under what conditions it would be prepared to form a cabinet or offer its support to the Patriots. The hypotheses are so brittle that even the chairman of the Patriotic Front Valery Simeonov is not ruling out the option of seeking support from the BSP in the event of GERB turning them down. In any case if a government were to be formed under the current parliament, it could not last more than a few months, and there will still be early elections.

If the third attempt at a cabinet under this parliament were to fail, President Plevneliev will be empowered to appoint a caretaker cabinet, though this would be the third caretaker government within his term of office, so it only makes sense that the head of state prefers the former option. Another possibility is a caretaker cabinet appointed by Rosen Plevneliev jointly with President-elect Rumen Radev. Still, after Radev turned down the invitation to take part in the Consultative Council on National Security, this possibility now seems an impossibility, indicating that with the political configuration now in place, the president-elect does not want to commit to responsibilities of this kind and prefers to appoint a caretaker cabinet by himself after he takes over in January.

While this political probing is going on, with more political consultations obviously in the offing, and “power lying there on the street with no one to bend down and pick it up”, another vital question in the political life of the country remains unanswered – what voting system will be applied at the manifestly inevitable early parliamentary elections – majority, proportional representation or mixed? On the day the Consultative Council on National Security was held, a discussion on the matter took place at parliament’s legal affairs committee which clearly showed that the political forces are not inclined to supplant the voting system in a hurry, even though a recent national referendum showed that voters were definitely in favour of the introduction of a majority voting system. Making the political situation in Bulgaria even trickier.

English version: Milena Daynova