Now that the Reformist Bloc has handed the mandate for forming a cabinet back to President Rosen Plevneliev, the question whether there would be a regular new government under the current parliament has been answered, but there is a new puzzle looming large: when and how will the snap parliamentary elections take place? That such elections are now inevitable was made abundantly clear by the president himself when he was handed back the mandate. Developments may now take different turns and these options were outlined in the course of the grueling political consultations over the past month, yet at this point there are no clear answers.

What is clear is that the date for the early elections will be set by President-elect Rumen Radev, as in the last three months of his term, the president in office, Rosen Plevneliev, is not empowered to do so. Radev will only be authorized to exercise this constitutional duty after he takes over on 22 January, 2017. That is when he will be able to appoint a caretaker cabinet to prepare the ground for elections. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), whose support the new head of state was elected on, wants elections at the end of March, whereas GERB party prefer the beginning of April. This may seem an insignificant difference in time, but it probably matters to the two principal parties in the country. Ultimately, however, what matters more is the question of the rules by which the elections will take place.

GERB is all for respecting the will of the voters, expressed at the national referendum held simultaneously with the presidential elections in November in favour of introducing a majority election system in two rounds. Supporting this will undoubtedly gives any political force doing so a voter advantage, seeing as it got the support of 2.5 million at the referendum. Yet all experts in the field say that a majority voting system would actually serve the interests of the biggest parties – GERB and the Bulgarian Socialist Party – yet the BSP is in favour of a majority electoral system with a proportional representation component, and that is something different from the system voted for in the referendum.

Another major dilemma is whether the change in the voting system should be put through now or later, by the next parliament. Draft amendments to the voting rules were actually submitted to parliament and quite dramatically, one week before the referendum, yet a last-minute radical change in the system is not to everyone’s liking. Even to the liking of GERB’s junior coalition partner, the Reformist Bloc, which says it is “dangerous” and could put in parliament people of dubious reputation. It is not to the liking of the Patriotic Front either - until recently, this coalition’s out-of-coalition partner. There is one more reason why the idea to introduce a majority voting system immediately is unacceptable – that the outgoing parliament will not have the time or the political resource to put through such a major change. As things now stand, holding early elections by the majority voting system rules in two rounds appears to be unrealistic. Unrealistic, though not to be ruled out altogether, because as the attempts to form a cabinet have shown, twists and turns are a political practice in Bulgaria that is not to be underestimated.

English version: Milena Daynova