Bulgarian economy in 2016 has performed as a true champion – with 3 percent of GDP growth it placed second in the EU when this indicator is concerned. More than one billion euros more in comparison to the previous year went to the treasury, while the Ministry of Finance registered a surplus in the state budget. The number of foreign tourists reached 10 million and exceeded the population of the country almost twofold. There are a number of other positive facts such as the substantial increase in wages of the poorest Europeans as in Sofia they even tied to average European levels.

All this speaks about good economic health and about positive effects of the growth felt by ordinary citizens. Another important fact that should be pointed out is that the economic growth had taken place amid previously stable political and social environment. Until November the second government of GERB and its often unpredictable coalition partners ruled quietly and without much tension. Even the refugee crisis was skilfully avoided and prevented by Bulgaria as it turned out that just like its place on the periphery of Europe, Bulgaria managed to stay away from mass migration flows and away from the main targets of the terrorists.

But too much of a good thing is no good, wise old Bulgarians say. This may turn out to be valid for the Bulgarian economy in 2017. Because every economist, financier or analyst, even the Bulgarian Finance Ministry forecast economic slowdown to a more moderate pace. Some even spoke that the Bulgarian economy had overheated and now levels would have to fall back to normal and sustainable levels. But nothing dramatic would happen to Bulgaria and the Bulgarians. GDP would continue to grow; the treasury would continue to be filled with money for public spending. European subsidies granted to the country for the new five-year program period should start coming and the income of employees will grow from January 1, as the minimum salary rises by 9 percent.

All this can be threatened by unexpected international developments in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. But the greatest threat is internal - it is political instability that began in November and will last at least until the early parliamentary elections in spring 2017. Six months of political turmoil, insecurity and uncertainty are able to shake up even the most stable and prosperous economy. Thankfully, political events to come, even though unpleasant, are not extraordinary and unusual in a democracy and Bulgarian economy has already gained a lot of experience in the implementation of measures to limit the negative impact of political turmoil and changes. Moreover, it is strong enough and has the necessary reserves and buffers to protect itself. This does not prevent it from having thousands of problems, including profound crisis on the labour market, where the lack of qualified personnel has reached dramatic and menacing levels for all companies regardless of the sector in which they operate. And this is a problem that cannot be solved with a magic wand or by a law. What it takes is time, effort and long-term measures. This means that in 2017 the workforce situation in this country will not improve and this will remain one of the greatest challenges to the economy.

English: Alexander Markov