This week the International Minetary Fund /IMF/ has published a report on global economic perspectives. The document’s authors foresee for Bulgaria a GDP growth of 2.9% in 2017, and a slowing to 2.7% in 2018. There is a 0.1% increase on the 2016 autumn IMF report. The Capital Daily comments that the improvement is most likely due to a better presentation of the Bulgarian economy in 2016, compared to the Fund’s forecast.

In early April the financial ministry also reviewed its expectation with a positive trend up by raising its autumn prognosis by 1%, envisaging 3% growth of GDP. At the same time Capital outlines that the UniCredit Bulbank’s January forecast of 3.6% up remained the most optimistic one.

The IMF foresees that the increasing of prices of goods and services in Bulgaria will continue over 2017 and 2018 as well, revising its inflation expectations up to 1% respectively /on 0.6% last year/ and 1.8% on an annual base. However, the greatest changes can be seen in current bill’s forecasts: the fund expects a surplus of 2.3% in 2017, at 0% expectations with the old prognosis. A factor for the positive trend is the bettered Bulgarian export over the second half of 2016 – both towards the EU and third countries. At the same time the Fund’s forecast on unemployment rates remains unchanged: 7.1% in 2017 and 6.9% in 2018. the Fund explains its more positive global forecasts with the well acting financial markets and the long-expected cycling recovery in industry and commerce, Capital further writes. At the same time it points out that the institution underlines the modest raise, with long-term expectations on global growth remaining weak on previous decades.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev