Bulgaria’s real GDP is projected to contract by 7.2% in 2020 largely due to the adverse impact of measures taken to contain the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, growth is forecast to rebound to around 6%, partially offsetting the decline in 2020, the European Commission forecasts. The economy in the whole EU will contract by 7.5% this year. The strength of Bulgaria’s economy and the positive external and fiscal balances before the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic should help this country recover from the large economic shock, the spring forecast of the Commission further reads. 

In February, the Commission forecasted that Bulgaria’s economy would increase with 2.9%. A rebound in economic activity is expected in the second half of 2020 with the gradual lifting of confinement measures. Domestic demand is projected to strengthen already in the third trimester and should continue growing in the fourth quarter of 2020, the analysis reads.