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Geopolitical uncertainty and reduced international demand are shrinking GDP

published on 1/26/24 12:01 PM

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The real growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Bulgaria for 2023 will be 1.8% compared to 3.9% in 2022. The growth is mainly determined by an increase in private consumption and positive net exports. The change in inventories has a significant negative impact on economic activity. These are the expectations of the analysts from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), recorded in the latest quarterly publication "Macroeconomic Forecast".

Compared to the November forecast, the BNB expects a lower GDP growth in 2024 and 2025. At the time, the BNB expected Bulgaria's economic growth to be 1.9% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, and 2025 – 3.6%.

Due to geopolitical uncertainty and an expected contraction in demand for Bulgarian goods and services, the January forecast is for GDP to grow to 2.5% in 2023 and to 3.4% in 2025.

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Radio Bulgaria Economy BNB Bulgarian National Bank GDP gross domestic product macroeconomic forecast

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