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Bulgaria's demographic crisis hits GDP

Negative growth accounts for 45% of Bulgaria's average annual GDP decline, BAS reports

Photo: BTA

Population decline has had a strong adverse impact on GDP growth since 2009, with an average negative effect of around 0.9 percentage points per year. This corresponds to about 45 per cent of the average annual GDP growth rate from 2010 to 2021, according to research by the Institute for Population and Human Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, as reported by BTA. According to the authors of the study, the negative effect is mainly due to emigration and the ageing of the population. 

The scientists warn that without changes in economic conditions and policies, there is a risk that this negative effect will continue and even worsen after 2035 due to the acceleration of population ageing.

Population decline is driven both by global trends, such as fertility decline and ageing, and by country-specific factors. The fertility rate remains below the replacement level, despite its slow recovery since the beginning of the new millennium. Bulgaria has one of the highest mortality rates in the European Union and the lowest life expectancy at 74.2 years, compared with an EU average of 80.6 years. 

Moreover, the population is declining due to negative natural growth and net migration, especially in the period 2012-2019. Measures are needed with a long-term effect, such as stimulating fertility and improving the health status of the population, as well as those with a short-term effect, related to the management of migration processes. Policies aimed at improving employment and increasing labour market participation are also needed, the authors note.

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