Bulgaria’s economy has been developing positively since the beginning of 2015. The process was registered by the country’s authorities who did not miss to mention this positive trend. Bulgaria’s citizens also felt the upsurge of the national economy, although most people do not have any special knowledge in economics and indicators such as fiscal reserve and balance of payments.

However, these economic indicators influence significantly people’s lives, especially if they deteriorate. When indicators improve, however, as it recently happened in Bulgaria, their psychological influence over the population is obvious. The consumers’ confidence is of great importance for each national economy. Let us recall the lack of consumers’ confidence in the USA in 2008 which caused a severe world economic and financial crisis, which still affects the countries’ economies.  

The latest data of the National Statistical Institute show that consumers’ confidence in this country has grown by 2.4% in the past four months. This indicator grew with 1.8% in Bulgaria’s towns and cities and with 3.9% in the villages. The population is more optimistic about the development of the national economy in the next twelve months and the households showed higher optimism regarding the change of their financial status.

The National Statistical Institute also published more optimistic data about the country’s exports and imports. Basically, when exports in a given country exceed imports, its economy shows signs of good health. According to data of NSI, exports showed an impressive 12.7% increase in the first quarter of 2015, as compared to the same period of last year, to the tune of over EUR 5.5 billion.

The EU improved its economic forecast about Bulgaria against the backdrop of encouraging facts and trends. Brussels expects that the country’s gross domestic product would grow with 1% year on year. The previous forecast showed that the national economy would grow with 0.6% only, which was quite a modest expectation as compared to its revised forecast. However, according to Bulgaria’s authorities, the country’s GDP rose by 2% in the first trimester of 2015. Therefore, the country’s economy performs better, which is a very nice surprise to the country’s authorities and population. This is so, because the Ministry of Finance expected a 1.4% GDP growth in 2015. In other words, the national gross domestic product would probably mark a higher growth this year as compared to 2014 when it increased with 1.7% year on year.  Meanwhile, In April 2015 the unemployment in Bulgaria dwindled with 0.3%, as compared to March. According to data of the Bulgarian National Employment Agency, unemployment was 1.1% lower in April, as compared to the same month last year.

What is behind these positive trends and indicators? A number of events and factors contributed to the improvement of the macroeconomic situation of this country. The political stability, productive dialogue between the social partners and the positive influence stemming from the economic recovery of the country’s major trade partners in the EU, have definitely played a key role in the country’s economic recovery.

We can also name other positive facts which influence Bulgaria’s economic recovery such as the budget surplus, which would perhaps allow the authorities to increase public expenditures to the maximum threshold in 2015. The abovementioned data is a good reason for optimism, if the economic upsurge continues.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov