There have been some developments of the refugee crisis over the past days that do cause concern. Two migrants dead frost at the beginning of the week was not good news. The girl aged around 16 and the woman at about 30 had both been part of a group of 19 illegal migrants nabbed in the area of Malko Tarnovo after having been abandoned by the smugglers. However, the existence of traffickers is still to be clarified.

Three days ago Turkish President Recep Erdogan threatened that Ankara might release Syrian refugees to West Europe – those are now over 2,5 mln. people, residing in tents along the southern border of Turkey. The possible route crosses Bulgaria. Is this a bluff? Erdogan is not happy with the less than USD 0,5 bln. granted by the UN for coping with the migrant crisis, as the EU had promised EUR 3 bln. The Turkish president says that his country has spent over USD 9 bln. so far and it’s logical to think that he wants to raise the ante for holding the refugee wave.

Bulgarian Minister of Defense Nikolay Nenchev commented that anything was possible, but the army had the potential to increase its presence along the border manifold. However, no one says what the scenario would be if even 50% of those refugees knock on our door one day.

The recent Sofia visit of EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship Dimitris Avramopoulos might also be viewed as some kind of a warning. The man hailed the Bulgarian authorities for their job well done, but reminded that in case Turkey refused any serious engagement with the solving of the refugee issue the situation might get really complicated.

The Bulgarian party voiced to the commissioner its firm optimism and Interior Minister Rumyana Bachvarova stated that her institution had 100% control over the border with Turkey. She also commented as unacceptable the Visegrad Four’s suggestion on the closure of the border with Greece due to her alleged failure to cope with the migrant crisis. Minister Bachvarova expressed the Bulgarian support for Greece as our neighbor and partner.

The EU commissioner accentuated on the financial side of the migrant issue – the EC granted EUR 91 mln. for the 2014 – 2020 period. However, the Bulgarian authorities wouldn’t comment whether it is enough. It remains a vague question what is the maintenance of the refugees who are still in Bulgaria and also how much the border control costs. It is winter now and we can’t talk on any large-scale migration process yet.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev