Together with Croatia, Bulgaria is among the few new EU Member States that have officially declared their desire to join the Eurozone as soon as possible and adopt the euro as their official currency. In Bulgaria, this ambition is accompanied by a number of measures adopted to meet the requirements of the euro area. Legislative changes have been approved, banks passed stress tests, budget deficits are under control, and external debt is low. According to these indicators, the country does better than many others who have already adopted the euro. Currently it is only inflation that is higher than acceptable.

On Wednesday, parties in parliament reached a political consensus on joining the Eurozone. Under these favorable circumstances, the authorities do not stop pointing out that this country is de facto ready to enter the ERMII mechanism, also called the "waiting room" for the euro area. At the 14th annual government meeting with business this week, it was formally stated that this is expected to happen by the end of April 2020. The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva, told the BNR that she sees the country's membership taking place in the "foreseeable" future, even predicting that this could happen by 2023. Days ago in Davos, Georgieva spoke with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). "What she told me was that it seemed Bulgarian would be heard in her meeting room of the eurozone," the IMF chief added.

Authorities say that before joining the euro area, the currency board in the country will remain intact and the changeover to the euro will occur at the current exchange rate of BGN 1.956 per 1 EUR. They also vow that in the course of this transition prices of goods and services will not rise and that the Bulgarian economy will be able to rely on support for its stability from the Eurozone rescue fund, which amounts to 800 billion euros.

Meanwhile, the Trend poll agency published a study on the attitude of Bulgarians to the euro and the results are not entirely to the taste of the government. According to the Expert Club for Economics and Politics, that commissioned the study, 50% of adult Bulgarians are against the introduction of the euro and only 19% support it. 54% of the respondents want a referendum on replacing the Bulgarian lev as national currency. Only 19% approve the government's ERM II course and the single currency.

Distrust of Bulgarians in both currencies is low -14% for the lev in the situation of currency board and 10% for the euro, as in both cases doubt is concentrated in elderly respondents. 60% of adult Bulgarians consider the lev as a stable currency. This is explained by the fact that in Bulgaria the euro actually functions as an official currency because it has a fixed exchange rate to the lev. This gives the national currency stability equivalent to the euro. It is no coincidence that some prices in the country are in euros – for example all real estate. The Bulgarians want a referendum on the euro solely because they fear that the transition process will make prices rise and will reduce their purchasing power. Considering that Bulgaria is the European Members State with the lowest incomes record holder, this argument becomes much more substantial and politicians or expert would have hard time convincing Bulgarians otherwise.

A certain amount of healthy pessimism and attention is never superfluous, especially when it comes to such a profound change as the adoption of the euro. Many go even further, predicting that there would be no marriage between the Bulgarian lev and the euro in the foreseeable future mainly because of political reasons. It is about Bulgaria's image as the poorest, but also the most corrupt country in the EU. There are influential forces in the eurozone that share this opinion and have repeatedly said that until this changed, Bulgaria would not be admitted to the EU core. So, even if it is accepted into the ERMII currency mechanism, the country would probably remain in the ‘waiting room’ for unknown amount of time because of political reasons.

English: Alexander Markov