The progress towards group immunity against Covid-19 and the phasing out of the restrictive pandemic measures in Bulgaria and the country’s trading partners will lead to a tangible increase in the GDP during the second and third quarter of 2021.

This is the forecast made by the Bulgarian National Bank, BNR, for the latest issue of Economic Review. The export of Bulgarian goods and services is expected to grow significantly by September, BNB says. The combined current and capital balance of the country is expected to be positive. During the second and third quarter of the year inflation will gradually pick up as a result of the upward trend in the evolution of international food and oil product prices, the analysis shows.